The rate of molecular evolution among lineages (species) is described by a time-dependent probability distribution (plotted here for three time points: 1 My, 10 My and 100 My) since the lineages diverged from a common ancestral rate (r (here with drift parameter v = 2.4 per 100 My).
This model has the undesirable property that the variance increases with time and without bound, and at large times the mode of the distribution is pushed towards zero.
In Bayesian clock dating, likelihood is calculated using the sequence data (and possibly morphological data) under a model of character evolution.
Constraints on the timing of lineage divergence in molecular clock dating.
b = 0.6, the same as the long-term log-variance of the Ornstein–Ulhenbeck process above).
The branch length (the amount of evolution along the branch) under the rate-drift models of parts a and b is usually approximated in Bayesian dating software The probability of the observed data given the model parameters viewed as a function of the parameters with the data fixed.
In Bayesian clock dating, priors on times and rates are combined with the likelihood (the probability of the sequence data) to produce the posterior of times and rates.
Distributions assigned to parameters before the analysis of the data.
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